PANAMA / RankWire.AI / – Panama Canal is exploring a further decrease in daily ship transits amid ongoing water shortages caused by drought conditions. According to Administrator Ilya Espino de Marotta, the number of vessels could decline to approximately 29 per day in February or March 2027. Any additional reduction would depend on sustained dry weather and reservoir water levels. Already, the waterway is approaching a cap of 32 transits per day starting from Sept. 15.
The Panama Canal Authority initiated capacity cuts after rainfall and watershed inflows fell below anticipated levels during the rainy season. The number of daily crossings initially dropped to 34 before the planned decrease to 32. The canal relies on freshwater stored in Gatun Lake and Alhajuela Lake to operate its locks, with each transit requiring water to lift or lower vessels between the Atlantic and Pacific oceans.
During fiscal 2026, the canal averaged 35 transits per day through June 30. Between October and June, it registered 10,726 crossings, representing a 5.2% rise from the same period last year. These figures were recorded prior to worsening rainfall conditions prompting new operational restrictions. The canal continues to serve as a vital route for container ships, tankers, bulk carriers, and other vessels involved in global trade.
Reservoir water levels influence daily transit capacity
Water availability has historically dictated the number of ships crossing during dry spells. During the severe 2023 drought, daily transits dropped to 22 in December as Gatun Lake fell to unusually low levels. Conditions improved following increased rainfall and water conservation efforts, aiding reservoir recovery. Canal authorities now continuously monitor lake levels, watershed inflows, and precipitation to determine daily operational limits.
In addition, vessel draft regulations have been adjusted as part of ongoing water management efforts. A planned reduction of the Neopanamax vessel draft to 47.5 feet was not implemented after reservoir conditions were reassessed. The maximum draft remained at 48 feet, with draft limits affecting how deeply ships are submerged in water, which can influence cargo capacity through the canal.
Slot availability declines as booking procedures tighten
Changes to booking and auction processes have been made as the number of daily transit slots decreases. The auction categories now distinguish vessels by cargo type, including container ships, gas carriers, tankers, and bulk vessels. When other conditions are similar, full container ships with higher capacity are given priority in some Neopanamax allocations. Canal officials encourage vessels without reservations to use the booking system, as confirmed bookings guarantee transit schedules.
No official decision has been announced to limit traffic to 29 ships daily. Espino de Marotta indicated that this level could be a potential restriction if dry conditions persist into early 2027. Additionally, the canal is progressing with the Río Indio reservoir project, intended to enhance long-term water storage capacity. Authorities assert this project will support canal operations and improve water supply for a significant portion of Panama’s population.